Monsoon low in Gulf could become cyclone

BRACE yourself for the third Queensland cyclone of the season, which is expected to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.

4pm UPDATE: FORECASTERS are tracking a monsoon low sweeping into the Gulf of Carpentaria from the Northern Territory.

It's up to an even money chance of becoming a cyclone but might not build to hurricane force before it gets over the Coral Sea.

Even as a low, the storm is expected to produce damaging winds and flood rains in the Torres Straits islands and the northern half of Cape York.

Weatherzone meteorologist Alex Zadnik said the low could potentially develop into a cyclone tomorrow night, with most computer models forecasting it would amplify over coming days.

"The Weather Bureau's ACCESS-G model picked this system well," Mr Zadnik said. "It was the first to pick it up but now most models are forecasting for it to become more organised Tuesday and Wednesday as it drifts east.

"It's hard to say whether it will have cyclone status before crossing Cape York or after it gets across into the Coral Sea.

"Whatever happens it will bring heavy rain to northern parts of the cape and then as it gets into the Coral Sea from about Cairns north."

The bureau rates it a moderate chance of developing either Wednesday and Thursday.

Bureau forecaster Jonty Hall said the low was weak and unlikely to become a cyclone tomorrow but was a moderate chance of forming up Wednesday.

"It's loose and sloppy at the moment," Mr Hall said. "When it moves over Cape York, the fact that it is over land might slow development but once it gets over the Coral Sea it will have more time to build on its foundations.

"Once they get solid circulation going, it doesn't take them as long to develop. At the moment it's broad and diffuse so it's quite weak."

The monsoon trough extends from northern Cape York Peninsula to severe tropical Cyclone Sandra which is 1550km east-northeast of Townsville and 850km northwest of Noumea.

It is expected to move south-southeast and to remain well offshore of the Queensland coast.

The Fiji Meteorological Service reports winds to 185km/hr.

Mr Hall said benign conditions continued over the rest of the state. 

OVERNIGHT, we reported Queensland needed to brace for the third cyclone of the season, which is expected to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.

And that might not be all, with a remote chance of a fourth looming behind it.

The cyclone, to be called Tim, is expected to track east across Cape York about Friday and into the Coral Sea, heading southeast.

Its course is unclear but it may travel parallel to Queensland and near enough to have some impact on the north, although there is only a slight chance of a direct hit on the coast.

It comes as southeast Queensland's London-like run of showers and drizzle looks like coming to an end, with a drier southerly wind to push away most of the scud.

Weather bureau forecaster Brett Harrison said showery weather would be replaced with mostly fine conditions from Thursday.

Mr Harrison said the gulf cyclone had up to a 50 per cent chance of forming on Wednesday although it was too early to determine its Coral Sea track.

Weatherzone forecaster Rob Sharpe said the cyclone would have a similar track to the existing Cyclone Sandra but nearer the coast.

"Although models are suggesting it generally will move closer, we think there is only a slim chance of a direct hit," he said.

"It's hard to call but it will bring showers to the tropical coast and increased winds to southern parts. There's a long shot of another cyclone forming behind it so people on the cape need to take precautions."

Although the wet coastal strip does not need any further rain, gulf and Cape York graziers are suffering from their driest wet season in 23 years.

Susan Shephard of 30,000ha Lillyvale Station on Cape York said the property had had no wet season rain until January 17, whereas storms usually began in November.

"No one wants a cyclone but sometimes you've got to have 'em to get the rain," she said. "We hope if it forms, it's not like Cyclone Monica (2006), which caused a lot of flooding."

Ms Shephard said a bonus of the dry was that no one had seen so many Gulf and Cape roads stay open during a wet season.

"They're even getting trucks through to Weipa," she said.

Public Works Minister Tim Mander said 10 category-five cyclone shelters that could provide accommodation for 800 people were ready for use.

"Cyclone shelters in Townsville, Ingham, Proser-pine and Bowen are all complete and the keys have been handed over to local disaster management groups," he said.

Under the program started by the previous government, shelters range from Kowanyama and Weipa in the Gulf, to Yeppoon in central Queensland.

Mr Harrison said there was little prospect of the Category 3 Cyclone Sandra, 1500km northeast of Townsville and 1000km northwest of Noumea, troubling Queensland.

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